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Leading Economic Indicators for the Residential Property Market: January 2011 update (Transfer Duty)

Written by  Dr Johan Snyman
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Leading Economic Indicators for the Residential Property Market: January 2011 update (Transfer Duty) Leading Economic Indicators for the Residential Property Market: January 2011 update (Transfer Duty)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The level, in nominal terms, is recovering.


TD01

After eliminating inflation, the real level shows a steady improvement.

TD02

The annual percentage movement is conforming to pattern … first, rising rapidly, then moderating during the early part of the growth phase (refer circles).

TD03

House price movements feed into the values of property transactions, on which transfer duties are based, hence the correspondence in cyclical movements.  The activity series is more volatile than the price series because of significant changes in the underlying numbers of property transactions.

TD04

Dr Johan Snyman

Dr Johan Snyman

Johan Snyman obtained his BComm and MComm in Economics at the University of Stellenbosch, and complete his doctorate at the University of Cape Town.  He spent 8 years working as an economist at the Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch and then established a private consulting firm, becoming Director of Medium-Term Forecasting Associates, a company specializing in research into building cycles and building costs.

In 2007 he was appointed Adjunct Professor in the Department of Construction Economics and Management at the University of Cape Twon.